Conference Realignment: What Next?

[aughnanure]

Posted yesterday at CBS Sports. I'm going to be so pissed if the Big East just lets the Big XII take Gonzaga without a fight.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footb ... t-to-meet/
Gonzaga's candidacy, Pac-12's future, Texas and Oklahoma exit plans on deck with Big 12 brass set to meet

Relevant section:
When Big 12 presidents and athletic directors begin meeting Thursday at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport Grand Hyatt, might as well bring your popcorn.

On the agenda is Gonzaga's potential membership in basketball. That alone has realignment implications beyond the Big 12. There will also be some discussion about the possible early exit of Texas and Oklahoma for the SEC.

Going into its first season with new members BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, the Big 12 will discuss perhaps its only athletic year with 14 teams. That's a Texas-Oklahoma issue, too.

Expansion is still in play, especially as long as the Pac-12 doesn't sign a new media rights deal.

...

After spending 43 years in the mid-major West Coast Conference, there are indications Gonzaga wants to play up a level of competition -- and get paid for it. Numerous reports have the West Coast power at least considering its options with the Big 12, Pac-12 and Big East all potential landing spots.

"I would assume if [the Big 12] wanted Gonzaga, they'd have Gonzaga," a person familiar with media rights deals told CBS Sports.

Maybe. On the school's end, the decision is said to be largely up to coach Mark Few, who has guided the Zags since 1999. The program is currently in the middle of rights deal with ESPN and CBS that expires in 2026-27.

On the Big 12 end, Yormark has tried to sell his ADs on the concept of a basketball-only member. They have previously seen a presentation regarding Gonzaga's membership, but it didn't include any financial details. Don't be surprised if the ADs have sought to price Gonzaga's inclusion with league media consultant Endeavor.

[ArmyVet]

Posted yesterday at CBS Sports. I'm going to be so pissed if the Big East just lets the Big XII take Gonzaga without a fight.

I don't think the Big East can assure them of the $$$ that the Big 12 can. That's the primary consideration.

[aughnanure]

Posted yesterday at CBS Sports. I'm going to be so pissed if the Big East just lets the Big XII take Gonzaga without a fight.

I don't think the Big East can assure them of the $$$ that the Big 12 can. That's the primary consideration.

Is it though? The article cites that basketball accounts for about 20% of the TV right value. Their current (new as of 2022) deal pays each school $31.66 million a year. 20% of that $31.66 million is $6.3 million - only a modest uptick on our current deal that is set to be renominated next year.

[Omaha1]

I didn’t think a school could join a league for basketball only?

[kayako]

I didn’t think a school could join a league for basketball only?

I believe basketball means rest of the sports offered by the destination conference tagging along. I've read it's an untested gray area, but I don't think there is an example of a Division 1 school joining a conference only for basketball.

[Jasper67]

I didn’t think a school could join a league for basketball only?

I think when they say “basketball only”, they mean not football. All the other sports are an afterthought, so they don’t even enter the conversation.

What’s interesting to me about this is that the Big 12 has been emerging as the top basketball conference in the last few years with 3 Final Fout teams in the past 3 tournaments and 4 in the past 6 plus the past 2 national champions. With Oklahoma leaving and Houston coming in, next year’s membership includes 4 Final Four teams from the past 3 tournaments. If they were to add Gonzaga that would be 5 from the past 3 tournaments and 6 from the past 5 tournaments. No one else comes close to 6 FF teams + 2 NCs in the past 5 tournaments.

All of this suggests that the league just might be seeing basketball as more important to its future than it has in the past now that big football programs like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, etc are all gone.

[Xudash]

If your program was in Gonzaga’s position, would you want it in the Big 12?

I just can’t make sense of the alignment aspect of it. A football conference plus one. The money would really have to work.

On the other hand, how much gas does Mark Few have left in the tank? How long will he be there?

Gonzaga in the Big East if we each make $10 million per year? No problem.

[adoraz]

If your program was in Gonzaga’s position, would you want it in the Big 12?

I just can’t make sense of the alignment aspect of it. A football conference plus one. The money would really have to work.

On the other hand, how much gas does Mark Few have left in the tank? How long will he be there?

Gonzaga in the Big East if we each make $10 million per year? No problem.

To answer the bolded part: absolutely, yes. Last year Villanova was in the Final Four with the best coach in the nation. Now they're nowhere near the bubble with a coach who has vastly underperformed. That said, they should be fine because they're in the Big East. I'd be very surprised if they don't get back to being a consistent Tournament team with a couple deep runs by the late 2020s.

Now, if Gonzaga stays in the WCC and follows up Few's departure with a year like Nova's (no reason to think that couldn't happen)? They could totally fade away.

Tbh, even as a Big East fan I'd probably prefer the Big 12 to the Big East if I were Gonzaga. The Big 12 is closer in geography, has the "Power 5" label (valuable even if basketball is really Power 6), and is simply the best basketball conference. I'd still be very happy to be in the Big East, though.

I'm wondering now if Gonzaga will even be invited. The Big 12 has to be nervous looking at Nova's year, Loyola Chicago's first year in the A10, and most importantly, Gonzaga's "great" but not "excellent" year thus far. March could be critical for them.

[admin]

On the school's end, the decision is said to be largely up to coach Mark Few, who has guided the Zags since 1999.

This is the line that sort of confuses me. Few might have 5-10 years left, but the school is willing to allow him to make the decision on conference affiliation? That suggests to me that the Zags administration is either concerned about losing Few or is concerned that a league change without Few would be a disaster.

In the end, I just don't see how Gonzaga in the Big 12 is a good long term solution for anyone.

[Jasper67]

If your program was in Gonzaga’s position, would you want it in the Big 12?

I just can’t make sense of the alignment aspect of it. A football conference plus one. The money would really have to work.

On the other hand, how much gas does Mark Few have left in the tank? How long will he be there?

Gonzaga in the Big East if we each make $10 million per year? No problem.

To answer the bolded part: absolutely, yes. Last year Villanova was in the Final Four with the best coach in the nation. Now they're nowhere near the bubble with a coach who has vastly underperformed. That said, they should be fine because they're in the Big East. I'd be very surprised if they don't get back to being a consistent Tournament team with a couple deep runs by the late 2020s.

Now, if Gonzaga stays in the WCC and follows up Few's departure with a year like Nova's (no reason to think that couldn't happen)? They could totally fade away.

Tbh, even as a Big East fan I'd probably prefer the Big 12 to the Big East if I were Gonzaga. The Big 12 is closer in geography, has the "Power 5" label (valuable even if basketball is really Power 6), and is simply the best basketball conference. I'd still be very happy to be in the Big East, though.

I'm wondering now if Gonzaga will even be invited. The Big 12 has to be nervous looking at Nova's year, Loyola Chicago's first year in the A10, and most importantly, Gonzaga's "great" but not "excellent" year thus far. March could be critical for them.

The last thing that the Big XII is looking at is Villanova’s season. Otherwise I agree with you.