Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Xudash]

If your program was in Gonzaga’s position, would you want it in the Big 12?

I just can’t make sense of the alignment aspect of it. A football conference plus one. The money would really have to work.

On the other hand, how much gas does Mark Few have left in the tank? How long will he be there?

Gonzaga in the Big East if we each make $10 million per year? No problem.

To answer the bolded part: absolutely, yes. Last year Villanova was in the Final Four with the best coach in the nation. Now they're nowhere near the bubble with a coach who has vastly underperformed. That said, they should be fine because they're in the Big East. I'd be very surprised if they don't get back to being a consistent Tournament team with a couple deep runs by the late 2020s.

Now, if Gonzaga stays in the WCC and follows up Few's departure with a year like Nova's (no reason to think that couldn't happen)? They could totally fade away.

Tbh, even as a Big East fan I'd probably prefer the Big 12 to the Big East if I were Gonzaga. The Big 12 is closer in geography, has the "Power 5" label (valuable even if basketball is really Power 6), and is simply the best basketball conference. I'd still be very happy to be in the Big East, though.

I'm wondering now if Gonzaga will even be invited. The Big 12 has to be nervous looking at Nova's year, Loyola Chicago's first year in the A10, and most importantly, Gonzaga's "great" but not "excellent" year thus far. March could be critical for them.

Good points and fair assessment.

I agree with you totally about Gonzaga‘s risk of fading. That is a real issue, especially for a school located in Spokane, Washington.

I would think that we all agree at this point that the Big East is putting a very good product out there presently. Again, imagine if and when Georgetown, in particular, gets its act back together.

What would/will drive expansion for the BE in the future? I have to believe that the answer is still all about money. Available content certainly does not appear to be an issue for the broadcasters. If it is about money for the BE, and Gonzaga is not available, I just don’t see where taking any mid-major at this point is going to be accretive to the conference.

I presume that giving up the current round robin format would not be a big issue for many so long as the payday increase makes such a move worthwhile.

Would it be acceptable if we hold at 11, because Gonzaga isn’t available for any reason, and our new media agreement moves up to no less than $7 million per school per year?

NIL is lurking out there as an issue that hopefully will eventually find some sobriety. Nonetheless, can we simply be the premier basketball only conference with a membership of 11 schools enjoying the intensity of a round robin format?

Our next media agreement negotiation is going to be beyond interesting.

[aughnanure]

I just can’t make sense of the alignment aspect of it. A football conference plus one. The money would really have to work.

On the other hand, how much gas does Mark Few have left in the tank? How long will he be there?

Gonzaga in the Big East if we each make $10 million per year? No problem.

To answer the bolded part: absolutely, yes. Last year Villanova was in the Final Four with the best coach in the nation. Now they're nowhere near the bubble with a coach who has vastly underperformed. That said, they should be fine because they're in the Big East. I'd be very surprised if they don't get back to being a consistent Tournament team with a couple deep runs by the late 2020s.

Now, if Gonzaga stays in the WCC and follows up Few's departure with a year like Nova's (no reason to think that couldn't happen)? They could totally fade away.

I just don't get this sentiment. There is just no way you go to 25 straight NCAA tournaments and are one of the best programs and brands in the game for more than a decade without that having lasting effects on the future of your program. Thats a freaking generation of success! That's how it has always worked for every great/good program - one coach raised the team up for so long it also raised trajectory of the future of that program.

Are we trying to argue that no program is worth adding if they may not be as great as their program's literal peak? Oh no, Gonzaga may not always have a top 2 seed every year, guess it’s not worth it? This is such a chicken little attitude and seems to say more about what some may think (or not think?) about the Big East than what they think about the Zags. And it just all seems a bit dismissive coming from fanbases that would kill to have the success and longevity they’ve had. Nova and Gonzaga are huge college ball brands, they’re not going away because of a coaching change or 2.

If you believe in the Big East and your team/our programs, you know what would help Gonzaga maintain or continue their success post-Few? By them playing our teams/programs in the freaking Big East! Man guys, sometimes…just try to remember the value our little conference really has.

[kayako]

I just don't get this sentiment. There is just no way you go to 25 straight NCAA tournaments and are one of the best programs and brands in the game for more than a decade without that having lasting effects on the future of your program. That's how it has always worked for every great/good program - one coach raised the team up for so long it also raised trajectory of the future of that program.

Are we trying to argue that no program is worth adding if they may not be as great as their program's literal peak? Oh no, Gonzaga may not always have a top 2 seeds every year, guess it’s not worth it? And Christ, let Nova be average for one year for once before we clutch out pearls. This is such a chicken little attitude and seems to say more about what some may think (or not think?) about the Big East than what they think about Zags/Nova. And it just all seems a bit dismissive coming from fanbases that would kill to have the success and longevity either of those programs have had. Nova and Gonzaga are huge college ball brands, they’ll be fine.

If you believe in the Big East and your team/our programs, you know what would help Gonzaga maintain or continue their success post-Few? By them playing our teams/programs in the freaking Big East! Man guys, sometimes…just try to remember the value our little conference really has.

I agree that such a prolonged success will have lasting effects. But I think it's fair to ask whether the cost of adding Gonzaga ends up being net positive or not for the 11 schools in the conference. If they were in the conference this season, it'd just be top 6 teams duking it out instead of 5.

[adoraz]

aughnanure - unnecessarily defensive post. I mean, St. John's and Georgetown, once the two biggest brands in this conference, have totally fallen off. Neither were at Gonzaga's level, and to be clear I don't think Gonzaga would reach Johnnies or Hoyas lows anytime soon, but the issue is Gonzaga is a small school far away from all other Big East members and can never come close to that level of incompetence without negatively impacting the entire conference. If St. John's or Georgetown (or Villanova, UConn, etc.) fall off they still at least are worth keeping in the conference due to their location, size, etc. Absolutely nobody in charge wants to kick out Georgetown even though they're the worst team in the conference.

The problem is none of us have financials and can work out scenarios. Let's say for instance if Gonzaga lowers a level like they have this season, and then another level post-Few where they're a fringe Top 25 team (sometimes missing the Tournament like almost all teams do). At that point would they still improve the Big East payouts in future TV deals? Or would they actually bring our value per team down? I don't know, but if I were to guess, they wouldn't help.

That said, I don't necessarily think the Big East needs to worry about 10 years from now (given the shifting conference landscape) and instead should focus on maximizing the upcoming TV contract. IF Gonzaga results in a substantial pay increase per team then I'd add them. If the additional payout is minimal then they'd have to think about it. I imagine the reality is the latter, which is why they haven't been invited yet.

This year has mostly been reassuring. The Big East was mediocre OOC with a bunch of close losses but still has managed to have 4 teams ranked for almost all of Big East play with 5 bids nearly locked in already. Going back to St. John's and Georgetown, those teams are completing 4-5 years of awful coaches and will be due for upgrades next month. If they do home run hires as other members have recently (Xavier, Marquette, etc.), then that could help solidify our value for the next TV contract where Gonzaga wouldn't be necessary.

I'm still all in on Gonzaga IF they add value/money per team, but I also wouldn't sweat it if they aren't added.

[Cheech]

BIG 12 has reached out to UConn/St John’s and NOVA!! All bets are off…BIG East better move fast..

[Omaha1]

BIG 12 has reached out to UConn/St John’s and NOVA!! All bets are off…BIG East better move fast..

Dayton fans are adorable.

[Cheech]

Thanks your about to find out how adorable!!!

[billyjack]

My updated, highly-scientific, and always unheeded expansion preferences as of Feb 2023, on a scale of 1 to 100:

only 2 former BE teams on list:
Notre Dame - 100.
Syracuse - 100.
no other old BE teams in contention.

others:
Gonzaga - 35.
San Francisco Dons - 7.
Saint Thomas Tommies - 5.
Detroit Mercy - 3.14159.
Dayton - 3.

no other teams are over scale of 1.

Gonzaga has lost a bit of that excitement and je ne sais quoi... momentum has stagnated... should've gotten it done 4 to 5 years ago... to be honest, i'm more excited about our current teams and coaches... Holloway, Sean Miller, Matta, the future unknown Hoya, future Pitino at St John's.

San Francisco and Saint Thomas got a boost due to available nearby NBA arenas, which i've randomly decided this month is a huge positive. Unfortunately, both are listed below 10 on this highly-scientific scale.

Dayton is on this list solely because at least their fans give a sh-t.

Detroit Mercy made the list just to aggravate lurking Dayton fans.

[stever20]

My updated, highly-scientific, and always unheeded expansion preferences as of Feb 2023, on a scale of 1 to 100:

only 2 former BE teams on list:
Notre Dame - 100.
Syracuse - 100.
no other old BE teams in contention.

others:
Gonzaga - 35.
San Francisco Dons - 7.
Saint Thomas Tommies - 5.
Detroit Mercy - 3.14159.
Dayton - 3.

no other teams are over scale of 1.

Gonzaga has lost a bit of that excitement and je ne sais quoi... momentum has stagnated... should've gotten it done 4 to 5 years ago... to be honest, i'm more excited about our current teams and coaches... Holloway, Sean Miller, Matta, the future unknown Hoya, future Pitino at St John's.

San Francisco and Saint Thomas got a boost due to available nearby NBA arenas, which i've randomly decided this month is a huge positive. Unfortunately, both are listed below 10 on this highly-scientific scale.

Dayton is on this list solely because at least their fans give a sh-t.

Detroit Mercy made the list just to aggravate lurking Dayton fans.

Duquesene is at 0.25 which is the highest it's been in 54 years I think. If they could duplicate this year about another 20 years they would get interesting.

[billyjack]

My updated, highly-scientific, and always unheeded expansion preferences as of Feb 2023, on a scale of 1 to 100:

only 2 former BE teams on list:
Notre Dame - 100.
Syracuse - 100.
no other old BE teams in contention.

others:
Gonzaga - 35.
San Francisco Dons - 7.
Saint Thomas Tommies - 5.
Detroit Mercy - 3.14159.
Dayton - 3.

no other teams are over scale of 1.

Gonzaga has lost a bit of that excitement and je ne sais quoi... momentum has stagnated... should've gotten it done 4 to 5 years ago... to be honest, i'm more excited about our current teams and coaches... Holloway, Sean Miller, Matta, the future unknown Hoya, future Pitino at St John's.

San Francisco and Saint Thomas got a boost due to available nearby NBA arenas, which i've randomly decided this month is a huge positive. Unfortunately, both are listed below 10 on this highly-scientific scale.

Dayton is on this list solely because at least their fans give a sh-t.

Detroit Mercy made the list just to aggravate lurking Dayton fans.

Duquesene is at 0.25 which is the highest it's been in 54 years I think. If they could duplicate this year about another 20 years they would get interesting.

Actually is your Duquesne score before or after their big first half yesterday at George Washington...?

Meanwhile, after losing at home to Navy, the Crusaders of Holy Cross sit at 0.037