Conference Realignment: What Next?

[gtmoBlue]

Thanks Dash...

(good to be off Sui_ide Watch and back with the living.) I couldn't take another 6 gm losing streak, lol.

It's Always Sunny... and Bright after whipping UC_nt. The UConn fans go ballistic that a midmajor, lil" Cr8n is kicking their asses.

[Omaha1]

Brett McMurphy:

“CBS & Turner are currently no longer involved in Pac-12’s media rights negotiations.”

That league is screwed.

[stever20]

Brett McMurphy:

“CBS & Turner are currently no longer involved in Pac-12’s media rights negotiations.”

That league is screwed.

Big 12 was so smart how they handled their TV negotiations.

[ArmyVet]

Brett McMurphy:

“CBS & Turner are currently no longer involved in Pac-12’s media rights negotiations.”

That league is screwed.

So cross off Gonzaga to the PAC 12 as an option.

[GoldenWarrior11]

A lot of near-term and long-term ripples will occur, but one I think we should definitely keep an eye on is Gonzaga. Gonzaga was never going to be considered by the PAC (the academic elites in Stanford, California and Washington were never going to support that), and now it very much looks like the Big 12 (and even the ACC) has an opportunity to poach from the PAC. What I could very much see moving forward is this:

The ACC invites (and adds) Stanford, California, Oregon and Washington. This allows ESPN to give a bump in pay to its ACC members and keep the top brands content for the next cycle (namely UNC, Florida State, Clemson and Miami). This also allows ESPN to protect these four brands from moving over to the B1G for the next several years with Fox. The academic-driven leadership by both parties see value in increasing their athletic brands and payouts to stay within the same ballpark as the B1G and SEC (even though it is far from playing the same game).

The Big 12 adds Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The Big 12, being split by ESPN and Fox, a valuable trade-off for both networks, as now neither pay top dollar to own the PAC content, and give a modest bump to increase the content and value of the Big 12.

CBS gives a slight bump to the MWC TV deal by adding Washington State and Oregon State. San Diego State stays with the MWC, and SMU stays with the American.

Gonzaga, now left out of both the Big 12 and PAC (the Big 12 doesn't need any non-football members with the Corner 4 being added), now needs to strongly consider the Big East once again. Fox, seeing an opportunity to add to the Big East inventory and brand strength (and, in comparison, small) bump in moving them over, gives the BE a bump with Gonzaga and has them become team #12.

By 2030, the B1G and SEC are coming after the ACC, which would leave the Big 12 as the lone tweener league within the football hierarchy.

[stever20]

A lot of near-term and long-term ripples will occur, but one I think we should definitely keep an eye on is Gonzaga. Gonzaga was never going to be considered by the PAC (the academic elites in Stanford, California and Washington were never going to support that), and now it very much looks like the Big 12 (and even the ACC) has an opportunity to poach from the PAC. What I could very much see moving forward is this:

The ACC invites (and adds) Stanford, California, Oregon and Washington. This allows ESPN to give a bump in pay to its ACC members and keep the top brands content for the next cycle (namely UNC, Florida State, Clemson and Miami). This also allows ESPN to protect these four brands from moving over to the B1G for the next several years with Fox. The academic-driven leadership by both parties see value in increasing their athletic brands and payouts to stay within the same ballpark as the B1G and SEC (even though it is far from playing the same game).

The Big 12 adds Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The Big 12, being split by ESPN and Fox, a valuable trade-off for both networks, as now neither pay top dollar to own the PAC content, and give a modest bump to increase the content and value of the Big 12.

CBS gives a slight bump to the MWC TV deal by adding Washington State and Oregon State. San Diego State stays with the MWC, and SMU stays with the American.

Gonzaga, now left out of both the Big 12 and PAC (the Big 12 doesn't need any non-football members with the Corner 4 being added), now needs to strongly consider the Big East once again. Fox, seeing an opportunity to add to the Big East inventory and brand strength (and, in comparison, small) bump in moving them over, gives the BE a bump with Gonzaga and has them become team #12.

By 2030, the B1G and SEC are coming after the ACC, which would leave the Big 12 as the lone tweener league within the football hierarchy.

where I disagree with you is that the Big East would only remain with Fox. I think it's prime for a split package. Get more money that way. Allows the Big East to monitize the 2nd package rather than it going straight to Fox. With the extra team, more conference games, and more OOC games as well.

[aughnanure]

Yes. I think you are massively downplaying the unique power the Gonzaga brand has become. They are literally a national brand, those fans are still going to be there watching even if they are fringe top-25 or whatever. And who expected every team to never go through a bumpy period? The point is Gonzaga has been so successful for so long that their brand and eyeballs they bring, even when they're having just an okay season, are worth it.

That being said, the ONLY actual reason to oppose Gonzaga is geography. All this other "how good are they gonna be post-Few" questioning is stupid. If it doesn't work well, it doesn't work - but its not because you're worried about them after Few. I used to think 25-75 it likely wouldn't work but after UCLA and USC to the B1G I'm not so sure.

Admittedly I am stupid most of the time I post here, but your argument amounts to basically Gonzaga is too big to fail. If you ask me, that's a questionable take that can be challenged. Like, at least provide some stats. Is having 11pm starts a net positive? What have you done for me lately is exactly how you've described Gonzaga. Talk about buying high. The cost is real high, as the geography issue is disproportionately higher for Olympic sports vs. Olympics + football with its revenue.

The BE's next TV deal is probably going to be significantly higher than the current one, with or without Gonzaga. Marquette blog wrote a good piece about this. I don't think there's any urgency to add a program that's constantly shopping around for a new conference. Like, imagine if Villanova was openly talking to the likes of ACC.

I tend to agree. I mentioned in an earlier response that Gonzaga hasn't really been on my radar this year at all and if they aren't at the top of the polls, they are pretty easy to forget about. If the Big East adds them, it makes sense in so many ways, but I think the league has shown that it is in good shape as currently constructed. Now if a TV partner says, hey add Gonzaga and the contract increased by $$$, it's a different conversation.

First off, no one's stupid here lol.

Second, Gonzaga is absolutely talked about a lot this year - if for no other reason that they aren't quite as high as previous years, but still very good. CBS, Field of 68, etc., all talk about the Zags somewhat regularly and even more then most of the top Big East teams even. Most teams technically fall-off the radar by this argument if they arent in the top 5, on the bubble season-long, or have coaches on the hot seat.

Third, I never said they are too big to fail - but I don't see how you can imagine them as a deadweight if they aren't a top 5 team nationally - which is what some of this sounds like. If that's true, then every Big East team not in the top 25 is a deadweight every year and you have to allow for programs to have ebbs and flows. And Gonzaga is the worst example of what have you done for me lately - Butler would be the better argument for that and I dont believe they were or are a bad addition. They've had nearly a quarter century of consistent relevancy and success and no team except Nova or UConn can even match. I just dont see the brand and, yes, nationwide fanbase they've built just going away or not still being a benefit to the Big East getting more attention overall if they are added. That multi-decade success helps protect against some large decline - as it has for most every program that have ever been great for that long. There may not be an urgency to add them, but with the upcoming TV deal and football conferences sniffing around - there should be real consideration now to add them or not.

I do think Gonzaga would boost the right deal, but obviously they should not be added unless they actually increase the payouts. But geography is still the real issue, I just cant see how you could worried about them as a program/brand that would help move more the needle for the Big East.

[aughnanure]

Quick question on the geography issue with Gonzaga and the non-basketball sports. How many sports need to actually travel for 1v1 conference matchups? As in, how does Track & Field, Golf, Tennis, Cross Country, Wrestling, Gymnastics, Swimming, etc. work? Aren't those operate more like meets that bring in more than just schools in your conference? I assume the conference has its own championship style meet near the end of the season - but I admittedly have no idea how those work inside a conference.

I would assume the sports travel for Big East schools would be primarily a Basketball, Volleyball, Baseball, Soccer, and Lacrosse issue? I'm probably missing a few other team sports.

[Burrito]

I would think that the Big Ten (at some point) will need to add more teams on the West Coast to complement USC/UCLA. Otherwise, they will be very isolated.

At that point, the 4 corner schools (which are still swearing loyalty to the PAC-12) will be open to being poached by the Big 12.

The PAC 12 is in trouble.

[FenwayFriar]

Quick question on the geography issue with Gonzaga and the non-basketball sports. How many sports need to actually travel for 1v1 conference matchups? As in, how does Track & Field, Golf, Tennis, Cross Country, Wrestling, Gymnastics, Swimming, etc. work? Aren't those operate more like meets that bring in more than just schools in your conference? I assume the conference has its own championship style meet near the end of the season - but I admittedly have no idea how those work inside a conference.

I would assume the sports travel for Big East schools would be primarily a Basketball, Volleyball, Baseball, Soccer, and Lacrosse issue? I'm probably missing a few other team sports.

This is the point people often overlook with the geography issue. It won't affect as many sports as most people think. Gonzaga sponsors a total of 18 sports. The only Gonzaga sports that will be traveling to Big East schools on a yearly basis are: baseball, M/W basketball, M/W soccer, and W volleyball. 6 sports... that’s it. The majority of sports, the remaining 12, will be able to keep their current schedules with the only change being going to Big East Championships at the end of the season rather than WCC Championships. These include: M/W cross country, M/W golf, M/W tennis, M/W indoor track & field and M/W outdoor track & field. M/W rowing won’t be affected at all, as Big East doesn't sponsor it as a sport.

Would this situation be 100% ideal for Gonzaga? Of course not, but I think it's their best option. The C7 knows all too well how it feels to be a basketball-only school in a football playing league. And at least we each had 6 friends... they'd would be all alone in the Big XII or PAC. You'd think some smart people in the Big East office and Zags athletic dept could figure out a reasonable solution for those 6 sports. I know their athletic department owns (or rents) a private plane for their teams to travel in, so that could ease some logistical issues. And as far as the 11 of us are concerned, it would obviously impact them much more than any of us, who would just need to travel to Spokane once a year.

Overall I’m a big proponent of Gonzaga coming on board. I generally think it’s remarkably overblown how often the Olympic sports are brought up as a travel barrier for the move. As stated, the 12 individual sports wouldn’t ever need to travel to the Big East schools because they don’t have home-and-home games/meets/matches with Big East teams. So really it’s just the 6 sports mentioned, which would seem to be feasible. Hope to see the Zags in the Big East in 2025 boosting up the new TV deal.