Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Omaha1]

What’s funny to me is that the Big 12 is going to be a conference comprised of the left behind schools (no OU or Texas) and additions from the AAC. Looks at what has happened with Disney/ESPN. I don’t believe that the finances of these networks is going to allow for massive TV deals for a league like the Big 12 in the long term.

[gtmoBlue]

TV Rights Deal - 2025...

Don't put stock into old, vague, unsubstantiated rumor GC. The conference's "body of work" (all sports) these last 11 years assures the front office of getting top-tier value for our content.

USAToday: television rights — the right to broadcast or stream conference games, NCAA tournaments and the College football Playoff, for example — have become the leading source of revenue for the Power Five conferences, supplanting ticket sales and donor contributions. With fewer funds available from student fees or state assistance, media rights provide some certainty due to the length of contracts.

“The rule of thumb is that football drove 80-85% of the rights. It is now 85-90%,” said Jeff Nelson, the president of Navigate, a market research company with clients in sports and entertainment. “With the way football produces the type of viewership numbers, it is more crucial to have football rights.”

In previous posts in these threads, my gitmo estimates ranged from a floor figure of $7 M, which in our case is still lowballing the conference, up to a ceiling of $11M, high for hoops-only conference.
Settling out at a midpoint of $9-10M/yr, over 6 years.

Using a 15% figure from https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conferenc ... estimates/ P5 Payout estimate chart.

B1G: (57M), 2022 Hoops $8.6 M, 2025 (75M) HOOPS $11.2 Mrt
SEC: (54M), 2022 Hoops $8.1 M, 2025 (75M) Hoops $11.2 M
B12: (40.6M), 2022 Hoops $6.1 M, 2025 (44.3M) Hoops $6.6 M
PAC: (34.4M), 2022 Hoops $5.1 M, 2025 (42.6M) Hoops $6.4 M
ACC: (30.9M) 2022 Hoops $4.6M, 2025 (39.6M) Hoops $5.94 M
ND had Net Revenue of $54M Football in 2022, and reportedly $11 M(?) in Hoops from the ACC. Why again, should they join the B1G?

2022 Hoops Avg MR: $6.5 M
2025 Hoops Avg MR: $8.26 M

GampelCrazies

I just think the worry is that the Big East doesn't get a great TV deal. So it might force some of those other programs to make a move. No matter what their fans want including UConn.

https://www.nber.org/digest/202011/reve ... ege-sports
https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conferenc ... estimates/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... /50640697/

[Xudash]

TV Rights Deal - 2025...

Don't put stock into old, vague, unsubstantiated rumor GC. The conference's "body of work" (all sports) these last 11 years assures the front office of getting top-tier value for our content.

USAToday: television rights — the right to broadcast or stream conference games, NCAA tournaments and the College football Playoff, for example — have become the leading source of revenue for the Power Five conferences, supplanting ticket sales and donor contributions. With fewer funds available from student fees or state assistance, media rights provide some certainty due to the length of contracts.

“The rule of thumb is that football drove 80-85% of the rights. It is now 85-90%,” said Jeff Nelson, the president of Navigate, a market research company with clients in sports and entertainment. “With the way football produces the type of viewership numbers, it is more crucial to have football rights.”

In previous posts in these threads, my gitmo estimates ranged from a floor figure of $7 M, which in our case is still lowballing the conference, up to a ceiling of $11M, high for hoops-only conference.
Settling out at a midpoint of $9-10M/yr, over 6 years.

Using a 15% figure from https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conferenc ... estimates/ P5 Payout estimate chart.

B1G: (57M), 2022 Hoops $8.6 M, 2025 (75M) HOOPS $11.2 Mrt
SEC: (54M), 2022 Hoops $8.1 M, 2025 (75M) Hoops $11.2 M
B12: (40.6M), 2022 Hoops $6.1 M, 2025 (44.3M) Hoops $6.6 M
PAC: (34.4M), 2022 Hoops $5.1 M, 2025 (42.6M) Hoops $6.4 M
ACC: (30.9M) 2022 Hoops $4.6M, 2025 (39.6M) Hoops $5.94 M
ND had Net Revenue of $54M Football in 2022, and reportedly $11 M(?) in Hoops from the ACC. Why again, should they join the B1G?

2022 Hoops Avg MR: $6.5 M
2025 Hoops Avg MR: $8.26 M

GampelCrazies

I just think the worry is that the Big East doesn't get a great TV deal. So it might force some of those other programs to make a move. No matter what their fans want including UConn.

https://www.nber.org/digest/202011/reve ... ege-sports
https://nvgt.com/blog/power-5-conferenc ... estimates/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... /50640697/

Hey, gtmo. Hope your summer is going well.

I'm not sure if BASKETBALL ONLY has a chance to skew a little differently, but the $8.26mm average appears to be pulling from the large increases in the SEC and B1G media agreements. The Big East certainly has the population centers covered nicely, but how much buyer fatigue is out there from the football deals that have landed, and what will Fox do (in your opinion)?

Perhaps I'm reading your post the wrong way, but the information would appear to set us up for an expectation of north of $6mm but not much more.

[Omaha1]

From Brett McMurphy:

“San Diego State has been notified by Mountain West, Aztecs will remain a league member, source told @ActionNetworkHQ. 1st report by @RossDellenger. SDSU must pay MW “modest legal fees,” estimated at less than $100,000, source said. SDSU had initially indicated to MW it intended to leave by June 30, 2024, but then SDSU indicated it would remain in league. SDSU had been considered the Pac-12’s top expansion candidate. SDSU may still leave MW before June 30, 2024, but would have to pay a $34 million exit fee”

[Xudash]

https://hilltophoops.home.blog/2023/07/13/ot-conference-realignment-is-all-and-only-football-driven-but-its-impact-on-basketball-only-leagues-is-detrimental-latest-football-news-can-the-wcc-survive/

Interesting info, especially coming from one of the "horse's" mouths.

i don't know if he was serious or just throwing around numbers, but he clearly states that basketball is about $ .25 of every dollar.

Also, if you believe his take, then things like Olympic Sports and disruption to student-athletes due to travel is a real thing.

Either way, it would seem logical that Gonzaga isn't heading for the Big 12 any time soon, and will probably be in no position to do so within that conference's new media agreement time frame.

Billy also appears to be spot on about Yormark. What I took to be aggressive and creative may actually be more about him windbagging his way towards noise and disruption that just isn't going to stick.

The Big 12 will survive, but without Texas and Oklahoma, and without the ability to pull any of the PAC schools into its gravitational field, it won't be a great look for that conference, even if they do pull Colorado back into the fold.

Yormark was supposed to have one or two more surprises this summer. We're heading into the dog days now: he doesn't have much time left to conjure something. It just doesn't appear as though Gonzaga is going to make the cut.

If it truly makes sense for the BE to grab Gonzaga, sooner rather than later would seem to be the way to go.

[GoldenWarrior11]

One of many things I love about Val and our conference leaders is that we don't stick our chests out or yell at clouds in the media. We don't create marketing campaigns or publicly declare we are open for business to make waves.

I am very confident Gonzaga has been discussed. I'm confident that, if they were added, we wouldn't know it until the day before.

The Aresco/Yormark model works for little brothers screaming for attention becomes they're being ignored. They wouldn't need to do that if they were already getting worthy recognition or appreciation.

[Omaha1]

Sounds more and more like nothing major will happen with the Pac12 and Big12. Which makes the Big12 just a newer slightly more attractive AAC.

[Django]

Don’t tell UConn fans….

they’ll be stalking the big 12 and ACC forever. They will always think they belong there but the reality is their football team belongs in the patriot league.

[adoraz]

Looking like Colorado and maybe some other Pac 12 schools (and UConn?) will be going to the Big 12 tomorrow.

[Omaha1]

Looking like Colorado and maybe some other Pac 12 schools (and UConn?) will be going to the Big 12 tomorrow.

Colorado has scheduled a Board of Regents meeting for a 2nd consecutive day for Thursday, where the Buffs are expected to discuss & approve a move to the Big 12, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. "It's 98 percent," source told @ActionNetworkHQ. Colorado has yet to apply for Big 12 membership, source said.