Bubble Watch 2/12/24

[stever20]

opponent ratings now NET ratings on Monday- which allows Quad ratings.
33 Michigan St Wed @ 92 Penn St Q2-won 80-72
34 Northwestern Thu @ 86 Rutgers Q2-lost 60-63
35 TCU Mon vs 154 West Virginia Q3-won 81-65
36 Butler Tue vs 11 Marquette Q1-lost 72-78
37 Florida Tue vs 94 LSU Q3-won 82-80
38 New Mexico Tue @ 47 Nevada Q1-won 83-82
39 Mississippi St off until Sat
40 Utah Thu @ 108 USC Q2-lost 64-68
-----first four---------
41 Washington St Thu vs 124 Cal Q3-won 84-65
42 Nevada Tue vs 22 New Mexico Q1-lost 82-83
43 Nebraska off until Sat
44 Ole Miss Tue @ 25 Kentucky Q1-lost 63-75
------cutline-----------
69 Wake Forest Mon @ 17 Duke Q1-lost 69-77
70 Cincinnati Tue vs 9 Iowa St Q1-lost 59-68
71 Gonzaga Thu @ 189 Loyola Marymount Q3-won 91-74
72 Providence Tue vs 46 St John's Q2-won 75-71
73 Seton Hall Wed vs 52 Xavier Q2-won 88-70
74 Memphis Thu @ 78 North Texas Q2-lost 66-76
75 St John's Tue @ 57 Providence Q1-lost 71-75
76 Colorado Thu @ 112 UCLA Q2-lost 60-64
77 Kansas St off until Sat
78 Drake Tue @ 178 Evansville Q3-won 78-75
79 James Madison Thu vs 206 Georgia St Q4-won 83-63
80 Xavier Wed @ 76 Seton Hall Q2-lost 70-88
81 Villanova off until Fri
82 Oregon off until Sat

[stever20]

Indiana St was shown on Bracketville as #45- but they lost tonight at home vs Illinois St. Probably MVC or bust for them.

[stever20]

Texas A&M, shown at #31 just lost to Vanderbilt on the road. #235 in the NET. A Q4 loss. That'll get you on the bubble real quick.

[stever20]

pretty good first 2 days of the week for the Big East on the bubble I'd say. 4 teams right at the cutline lose Q1 shots that could have really propelled them.

[Omaha1]

Big East has to be concerned a bit. Things aren’t looking great at the moment.

[stever20]

Big East has to be concerned a bit. Things aren’t looking great at the moment.

I think 5 is very likely. I don't think more than that is all that realistic.

I'd probably say-
5- 80%
6-10%
7- 5%
4- 5%

[billyjack]

The Mountain West gamed their schedules somehow. But at least we're getting revenge by cutting into the beginning of their 9pm televised games every night.

[stever20]

The Mountain West gamed their schedules somehow. But at least we're getting revenge by cutting into the beginning of their 9pm televised games every night.

all it is really IMO is no seperation at the top. #1 team has 3 losses, then 4 others with 4, and 3 others with 5. Just a perfect storm to get a lot of teams in.

[Husky_U]

The Mountain West gamed their schedules somehow. But at least we're getting revenge by cutting into the beginning of their 9pm televised games every night.

all it is really IMO is no seperation at the top. #1 team has 3 losses, then 4 others with 4, and 3 others with 5. Just a perfect storm to get a lot of teams in.

And none of them will get good seeds, resulting in zero second weekend representation. Quantity over quality.

[stever20]

The Mountain West gamed their schedules somehow. But at least we're getting revenge by cutting into the beginning of their 9pm televised games every night.

all it is really IMO is no seperation at the top. #1 team has 3 losses, then 4 others with 4, and 3 others with 5. Just a perfect storm to get a lot of teams in.

And none of them will get good seeds, resulting in zero second weekend representation. Quantity over quality.

Right. Top one on bracketville right now was Colorado St at #19- so a 5 seed, but they got beaten pretty good by #23 San Diego St. So maybe best seed being a 4 if they're really lucky.